is it naive, cocky, and/or overly confident to believe that i can complete a 50K trail race in under 5 hours?
i mean... i can complete the black loop at lapham in (best time) 1:03 which is 6.5ish miles... with that said i think that finishing 31 trail miles in under 5 hours is doable. i mean... the top 10 finisher (female) in 2013 finished between 4:04 and 5:29 so i think i should be able to do it. this could just be my ignorance talking tho' but i don't see why it wouldn't work out like that? i guess i don't really know how hilly the course is in comparison to lapham. although, i have been reading every.single.race.report that exists on this race and it seems like i shouldn't have any problems running it in that time. maybe in spring i'll start running 2 loops in lapham for preparation. i've never gone into a race with a goal time that i didn't manage to squeak out on par or really close.
so my question for you, dear readers, is this: has there ever been a time where you had a goal finish in mind and it turned out that you were really really off in the estimation? if so, why didn't you make the goal? injury? too cocky? or just gross miscalculation?
talk to me people!